A Political Corpse Now Leads Britain
The UK general election, which was looking so boring for so long, finally got interesting.
First, let me say that Theresa May’s decision to hold the election was the right one. At the time she was miles ahead in the opinion polls, but her party only had a very narrow majority. To go into Brexit negotiations with such a slim majority would have placed her in a position of weakness with the EU. Britain’s exit promises to be a stormy one, and the government’s popularity is sure to fluctuate.
With such a slim majority even a small backbench revolt would have put May in an extremely difficult position. She desperately needed a stronger mandate. So, seeing her Party more than 20 points ahead of Labour, going to the country was technically the correct decision.
The problem was that, although this was the right choice, May was already the wrong leader. She had been chosen mainly because (a) she was a woman and (b) because her role in the Brexit campaign had made almost no impression. This meant that even though she had supported “Remain” nobody could remember her actually doing it, so in a weird way she could be viewed as a "neutral" compromise candidate between the Bremainers and Brexiteers in the Conservative Party. People like Boris Johnson and David Cameron, by contrast, were too strongly tied to their Brexit campaign positions and thus regarded as "divisive."
The problem here, however, is that her very innocuousness in the Brexit campaign signified her weakness as a leader and campaigner, something that became increasingly clear as she was thrown into the limelight as a Prime Minister seeking a massive endorsement from the British public.
During the campaign she avoided debating Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, while weirdly basing her party’s campaign on a cult of her own personality. She of course had very little personality. In addition to that, she entirely misread the mood of the country and made glaring tactical errors.
Labour, as the party that basically knew it wasn’t going to win from the start, took advantage of its lack of governmental prospects to go overboard on generous spending promises, tapping into the well of anti-austerity feeling in the country.
May failed to tap into the equally strong appeal of fiscal prudence and good housekeeping, something that British voters also crave. Instead, she opposed Labour’s extremely hypothetical generosity with overly harsh and concrete proposals of stinginess. Her manifesto included a pointless pledge to force old people with property to pay all of their social care costs, whether at home or in a care home. This was to be paid from their assets, such as property, allowing them to pass on only the last £100,000 to their families. This instantly became known as the “dementia tax.”
Not only did it make her seem like a callous bitch, but, more importantly it hit one of her key voter demographics, and then, when she predictably backed down, her “strong and stable” image that she had invested so much PR capital in, was in tatters.
Corbyn meanwhile threw his voter demographics red meat, for example, “promising” to abolish bloated university tuition fees. So, while Corbyn was coming over all natural and Bernie-Sanders-like, and energizing his voter blocs, May, by contrast, deengergized hers. Instead of the being the reincarnation of Mrs Thatcher she ended up channeling the political ghost of Hillary Clinton, looking caked and robotic under too much make up.
So, while Labour was never in the running to win, the Conservatives ended up joining them there.
Now we have a fascinating situation. The election has resulted in an impasse, one that not only leaves Britain weak, confused, and leaderless at the time when it it is facing its real enemy, the EU, but it also effectively hamstrings its two main parties. Rather than liberating Britain, democracy has effectively hog-tied Britain and laid it at the feet of the EU.
There is no salvation in sight. Likable as Corbyn is, he is still seen, quite rightly, as a left-wing, terrorist-loving nutjob by too many voters. This performance was his ceiling, and his high-water mark is considerably below Theresa May’s low-water mark. Unfortunately, after what is considered a "very successful" result, his grip on the Labour Party is fixed and indeed deathlike.
The Conservatives can, in theory, win more than enough seats to gain a majority in the UK Parliament, but this time, thanks to extremely poor campaigning from a fast-tracked, mediocre, female leader they have fallen far short of their potential, and must rely on the soft-Brexit-favouring Ulster Unionists for life support. In a way they are victims of their own sexism.
But it is worse than that. May was only elected leader last Summer, and so it is extremely awkward to bring in talent at the top with another leadership election, especially while the Conservatives remain, so to speak, "mired in government."
Having a full blown leadership election now could expose the deep divisions in the party that Brexit was supposed to cure. Not only would the Conservative Party end up looking shambolic and inward-looking, it could also lead to backbench revolts – with only a handful of anti-Brexit MPs, or alternatively hard-Brexit ones, required to lay the government open to a no-confidence vote by the other parties. Having another election while the party was leaderless and unpopular like this, could prove disastrous, and might even create a political vacuum capable of sucking Jeremy Corbyn into government.
This is the Tory nightmare and the reason why a lot of the party bigwigs are keen for May to stay on, despite the fact that she is now seen as an appalling leader and a complete lame duck with no credibility to negotiate with the EU.
May is effectively a political corpse, but because of the extreme awkwardness of arranging her funeral just now, her moldering cadaver must remain locked in the saddle of the Party and the Government – one is almost reminded of the scene in the movie “El Cid,” when the dead body of the eponymous knight was set on his horse to lead his men to victory. I doubt that May's political corpse will emulate that success.
If May could see beyond her petty vanity, she might realize the grotesqueness of her situation, and resign from her post in horror. But I suspect she may be too stupid for that, and could also be nudged to stay by colleagues afraid of the grim alternatives.
Another possibility is for Conservative MPs to all reach unanimous agreement on an uncontested successor, and to then circumvent the Party’s electoral processes with a seamless act of acclamation. Sometimes anti-democratic machinations like this are the best cure for the major malfunctions of democracy.
First, let me say that Theresa May’s decision to hold the election was the right one. At the time she was miles ahead in the opinion polls, but her party only had a very narrow majority. To go into Brexit negotiations with such a slim majority would have placed her in a position of weakness with the EU. Britain’s exit promises to be a stormy one, and the government’s popularity is sure to fluctuate.
With such a slim majority even a small backbench revolt would have put May in an extremely difficult position. She desperately needed a stronger mandate. So, seeing her Party more than 20 points ahead of Labour, going to the country was technically the correct decision.
The problem was that, although this was the right choice, May was already the wrong leader. She had been chosen mainly because (a) she was a woman and (b) because her role in the Brexit campaign had made almost no impression. This meant that even though she had supported “Remain” nobody could remember her actually doing it, so in a weird way she could be viewed as a "neutral" compromise candidate between the Bremainers and Brexiteers in the Conservative Party. People like Boris Johnson and David Cameron, by contrast, were too strongly tied to their Brexit campaign positions and thus regarded as "divisive."
The problem here, however, is that her very innocuousness in the Brexit campaign signified her weakness as a leader and campaigner, something that became increasingly clear as she was thrown into the limelight as a Prime Minister seeking a massive endorsement from the British public.
During the campaign she avoided debating Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, while weirdly basing her party’s campaign on a cult of her own personality. She of course had very little personality. In addition to that, she entirely misread the mood of the country and made glaring tactical errors.
 |
| The influence of the Tory tabloid press was much diminished. |
May failed to tap into the equally strong appeal of fiscal prudence and good housekeeping, something that British voters also crave. Instead, she opposed Labour’s extremely hypothetical generosity with overly harsh and concrete proposals of stinginess. Her manifesto included a pointless pledge to force old people with property to pay all of their social care costs, whether at home or in a care home. This was to be paid from their assets, such as property, allowing them to pass on only the last £100,000 to their families. This instantly became known as the “dementia tax.”
Not only did it make her seem like a callous bitch, but, more importantly it hit one of her key voter demographics, and then, when she predictably backed down, her “strong and stable” image that she had invested so much PR capital in, was in tatters.
Corbyn meanwhile threw his voter demographics red meat, for example, “promising” to abolish bloated university tuition fees. So, while Corbyn was coming over all natural and Bernie-Sanders-like, and energizing his voter blocs, May, by contrast, deengergized hers. Instead of the being the reincarnation of Mrs Thatcher she ended up channeling the political ghost of Hillary Clinton, looking caked and robotic under too much make up.
So, while Labour was never in the running to win, the Conservatives ended up joining them there.
Now we have a fascinating situation. The election has resulted in an impasse, one that not only leaves Britain weak, confused, and leaderless at the time when it it is facing its real enemy, the EU, but it also effectively hamstrings its two main parties. Rather than liberating Britain, democracy has effectively hog-tied Britain and laid it at the feet of the EU.
There is no salvation in sight. Likable as Corbyn is, he is still seen, quite rightly, as a left-wing, terrorist-loving nutjob by too many voters. This performance was his ceiling, and his high-water mark is considerably below Theresa May’s low-water mark. Unfortunately, after what is considered a "very successful" result, his grip on the Labour Party is fixed and indeed deathlike.
The Conservatives can, in theory, win more than enough seats to gain a majority in the UK Parliament, but this time, thanks to extremely poor campaigning from a fast-tracked, mediocre, female leader they have fallen far short of their potential, and must rely on the soft-Brexit-favouring Ulster Unionists for life support. In a way they are victims of their own sexism.
But it is worse than that. May was only elected leader last Summer, and so it is extremely awkward to bring in talent at the top with another leadership election, especially while the Conservatives remain, so to speak, "mired in government."
Having a full blown leadership election now could expose the deep divisions in the party that Brexit was supposed to cure. Not only would the Conservative Party end up looking shambolic and inward-looking, it could also lead to backbench revolts – with only a handful of anti-Brexit MPs, or alternatively hard-Brexit ones, required to lay the government open to a no-confidence vote by the other parties. Having another election while the party was leaderless and unpopular like this, could prove disastrous, and might even create a political vacuum capable of sucking Jeremy Corbyn into government.
This is the Tory nightmare and the reason why a lot of the party bigwigs are keen for May to stay on, despite the fact that she is now seen as an appalling leader and a complete lame duck with no credibility to negotiate with the EU.
 |
| Zombie politics |
May is effectively a political corpse, but because of the extreme awkwardness of arranging her funeral just now, her moldering cadaver must remain locked in the saddle of the Party and the Government – one is almost reminded of the scene in the movie “El Cid,” when the dead body of the eponymous knight was set on his horse to lead his men to victory. I doubt that May's political corpse will emulate that success.
If May could see beyond her petty vanity, she might realize the grotesqueness of her situation, and resign from her post in horror. But I suspect she may be too stupid for that, and could also be nudged to stay by colleagues afraid of the grim alternatives.
Another possibility is for Conservative MPs to all reach unanimous agreement on an uncontested successor, and to then circumvent the Party’s electoral processes with a seamless act of acclamation. Sometimes anti-democratic machinations like this are the best cure for the major malfunctions of democracy.
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